Netflix expected to lose market share to streaming rivals

In the latest report by eMarketer, Netflix is still the top subscription streaming service in the United States.  However, Netflix’s competitors have started cutting its market share.

Netflix’s dominance in the streaming world is predicted to slip as new services enter the market. Its rivals like Amazon Prime Video and Hulu are reportedly growing.

“Netflix has faced years of strong competition for viewers, coming from streaming video platforms, pay TV services and even video games,” said eMarkteter’s forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom.

In 2019, it is projected that 182.5 million consumers will be subscribed to over-top-top streaming services in the United States.  This is roughly about 53.3% of the population. Netflix is the front-runner, taking around 158.8 million views. This number is still growing.

While Netflix’s numbers look very promising with its subscriber count climbing, analysts say that its share in the over-the-top subscription market will decrease.  It is expected that Netflix will have 87% of the overall streaming viewers. This number is 3% lower from the 90% overall streaming viewers that Netflix has had in the past five years.

By 2023, it is expected that Netflix’s total over-the-top (OTT) video service users will slowly and steadily decrease.  It is expected to dip to around 86%.

The forecast regarding Netflix’s market share comes after the streaming giant’s report that it has experienced its first net subscriber loss in the United States.  It has also revealed that it has missed the predicted global subscriber growth.

In its 2019 Second Quarter Fiscal Report, Netflix reported that its overall paid subscriber has declined.  While its worldwide paid subscribers increased to 2.7 million, it lost 130,000 in the United States.  This is Netflix’s first drop in U.S. based users in nearly 10 years.  

One of the contributing factors to the decline that Netflix has experienced in Q2 is said to be due to the increase in its subscription prices.  In the United States, the prices went from $10.99 to $12.99.

Back in 2014, Netflix had a 90% market share.  As the number is expected to decline, the markershare of its rival services like Amazon Prime Video and Hulu have risen. 

In the US, Amazon’s Prime Video is the second subscription over-the-top video provider.  This year, it estimates that it has about 96.5 million subscribers. Compared to last year’s numbers, there has been an 8.8% increase.  By 2021, it is expected that Prime Video would be able to capture a third of the U.S. population.

Amazon Prime Video is not the only one gaining traction in the streaming market.  According to estimates, Hulu has managed to reach 75.8 million users in the United States.  This is about 41.5 % of the subscriptions service users.

This year, Hulu is expected to gain 17.5% of viewers.  While the number looks good, it’s actually a big drop compared to last year’s 49.6%.

In the coming months, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu are not the only streaming services that Netflix should be wary about.  In November 2019, Disney will finally launch its streaming service in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands. Disney+ will also be available in other territories. Launches in Western Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Eastern Europe are expected to follow in the months and years to come.

There have been reports of an upcoming bundle consisting of  Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. The cost of this bundle is said to be the same price as a standard subscription to Netflix.

With the rollout of Disney+, release of Apple TV+, and possible entrance of other upcoming streaming services in the market, analysts say that we should look into Q1 2020.  This is when we would find out if Netflix loses a significant percentage in its market share and if it would succumb to adding advertisements to its service.

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